My Predictions for the future

Well we are on the cusp of a major change that will rock our world in the next 2 years…or maybe not.

I am going to make a few political predictions when it comes to what will happen during the next 4 years and it really won’t show a major change no matter who is elected and knowing this is the key in making an informed decision. I am going to look at several aspects of the nation that will determine political outcomes over the next four year yet some may be unfair choices.

The Economy: If Mitt Romney and the republicans get in power the economy will just turn right around right? The answer to this is no. Even with radical changes the economy moves slowly and any growth seen over the next 4 years will likely be due to the policies of the last president. These changes will likely not even start to show any grasp until the end of the Governor Romney’s first term of office and it is very possible that it will not even show at that time if the changes are more subtle.

The People are not very patient with the economy so those of you who want the Republicans to stay in office you had better change your tune of hoping that President Obama fails as it will be his influences that will show the state of the economy at the end of two years when major changes could take place. If the economy tanks as many republicans believe that the president’s work will cause it will be blamed on the current party in power much as it was for the democrat party in 2010. So if the recovery does not pull into full swing in two years expect a major shift in power in congress yet again and in 4 years you will see a change of presidents.

Note: If republican predictions are true and the president’s economic plans are going to cause the country to fall into an even further economic collapse then no matter who gets elected you better get ready for it because there will be nothing short of a dictatorship that could turn the economy from its current path for a major change in the next 2 years.

Medical: Governor Romney may work to repeal Obamacare but this will not cause any huge changes as it will take time. Repealing the law is difficult especially if the Democrats hold on to the Senate. After repeal things will return to where they were before and considering the drama it took to pass healthcare reform when democrats held the congress and presidency it is unlikely that republican reform will go through quickly as there is no united view on this. During this time more people will be forced into the emergency rooms and more government debt will mount. Healthcare costs will continue to rise as they did before and after Obamacare and more help from the government will be looked to for medications as the Part D Medicare plan will fail due to lack of funding (as was intended originally by the Bush Administration). For anyone thinking that healthcare costs will go down or those doctors will start opening up more businesses then they are going to be mistaken. The only hope is that they get the job done quickly as the number of wellness visits may go down and the number of ER visits will go up if people are given time to get used to the no co-pay wellness visits.

In the end I predict that by the end of two years healthcare costs will continue to rise and the number of uninsured will continue to grow. This will be used by the opposing party as the ruling party tries to sweep it under the rug. This will only effect the election if the increase in ER visits causes enough of a rise in medical expenses to effect the nation’s debt.

Social: It is doubtful that there will be any major changes on this front. No matter who is in power abortions will not go away and gay marriage will continue to be an issue. I do not believe that totally outlawing either would be in the best interest of the party in power. The only changes seen will likely be minor making it either harder or easier for these to be done.

In regards to religious freedom of private businesses. I do not believe that contraception will be illegal but I do believe that private businesses will be given the right to not treat certain medical problems if they decide that their religion would not allow for it.

Military: We will be without any attacks if Governor Romney takes office right? The answer is likely that we will be in the same place as we are now. Though increased military funding has been proposed it is much like the Stimulus money being without a particular plan or use. Much of the increase will go to weapons manufacturers for equipment that will most probably not even been seeing field work. No matter who takes office we will still have the same enemies and same friends in the world, we will still have terrorists and we will still have a presence in military bases around the world. I suggest that there is to be no change no matter who is in power.

How can that be? Both parties believe in funding the military despite what either group will tell you. The difference is in where the funding cuts are made and where the increases are given. Under democrats the fund cuts are usually to weapons manufacturing and any increase is typically to veteran’s services or soldier pay. The idea is that a well groomed soldier will be ready when the time comes. The Republican Party tends to do the opposite reporting that a well armed soldier gets the job done.

In Summary: In the end we will not see any major changes in the issues over the next 4 years. Our decisions for who stays in power for the next election will for the most part be determined by the political moves of our current president and the resilience of his policies. I say think hard and look at things hard when you vote. If things are going well in 2 years don’t give credit to the individual that didn’t really have an effect on it just as you shouldn’t blame the man if  the economy is still in the tank in two years.

Republicans, if you want to stay in power (provided your guy gets elected) pray for the president’s economic policies to be successful even if they are mildly so. You can claim his successes are your own and win the election.

Democrats, take the republican stance and hope that the president failed (provided your guy loses the election). You can then blame the party in power for something they don’t have any power over and turn the tables.  

Polarized

Well with the continuing plodding towards the election things become more and more polarized in their way of thinking as the parties become more and more extreme those in the middle tend too be eaten up in the battle for power.

I myself consider myself a left leaning moderate but many would not see it that way in this day and age. Even if I speak with people who are also left leaning they could accuse me of being a right wing nut job.

Where does this come from these days? It seems even if you disagree with a pundit on a single point they call you an extremist for the other side. Why is it that you have to be 100% to the left or right? What is wrong with being a moderate anymore?

The answer is quite simple, if you have a moderate then the person may be convinced to vote for someone that is not in your party if they are nasty enough. It is far better to scare the moderates back into their corners because that way the control is there and they are not given the chance to think for themselves. If this is accomplished you can put up the most evil individuals in the world and they will be to scared to vote for anyone else.

I can come up with two recent examples within the last decade. Under Bush many of his followers had become sick of him and his administration so they used scare tactics such as the color coded terror system to convince you that if you were to vote for the other guy it would be a vote for the terrorists. This is how the Patriot act got passed (this law was anything but patriotic). On the other side many of the democrats have used a measure of guilt in their tactics leaving the people to believe a vote against the president is a vote for intolerance and bigotry.

Many on both sides will deny these tactics were used, and for some they were not but there were many in each of the groups that made such problems for the rest. These people need to be expelled from the system as they are not worthy of participating in the game.   

I know many of my audience here are polarized already but I ask you to please take care in who you vote for by trying at least to look at them as individuals and not as the party they stand with.

Certain People You May Know

Have you ever talked with someone about politics? Ever gotten angry as they are never ever able to see your point of view even if you have all the facts together? Do they mirror the pundits? Well I have looked into things and come up with several cues to explain the way of thinking that most really die hard people use when going about their arguments.First off let us talk briefly about the Pundits, you know the MSNBC anchors the Talk Radio Hosts all of who have strong opinions. Many of the people above will trust these people as if they are the best friend’s they ever have. “I don’t need to research it Rush told me it was true!” We need to keep in mind that these people are paid for their opinions to be what they are. They follow the rules below as their blueprint and their very job is to teach these rules to their audience so that they in turn have more rabid followers. If there is anything that you should take off of this is that Pundit are not to be trusted on their own if at all.The Rules that people follow:

1. Demonize your Enemy: Politics is not that different from war, the other side is your enemy and if your side has a shot at seeing the other as human then the other side might just have a shot at conversion. The person subscribes to the belief that members of the other party are evil individuals they hate America, they are terrorists, they want the elderly and disabled to die and send the children to sweatshops. In truth most politicians are not much better or worse than the rest of us.

2. Angelify your Allies:  As you make your enemies into demons your allies are angels. Members of your party of the moral majority, they are the party of the people. Your people don’t break laws they don’t tell lies and you will fight to the death if your person messes up. Of course if they do mess up and they don’t have any well worn excuses then it is obviously a conspiracy from the other side used to cover up.Again in truth most politicians are not much better or worse than the rest of us.


3. You can always truest your Guy: The people on your team are obviously superior as of rule #2 so we know that anyone on your team can’t possibly lie. You can trust your people completely. If there are plenty of facts to dispute your guy’s issue then they obviously can’t be facts and just in case you can just say the researchers are idiots and don’t know what they’re talking about.

4. You can’t trust the other guy: The people on the other side are immoral people as per #1 so therefore there is no possible way that they can be telling the truth about anything so there is no reason to bother fact checking them. I mean why do the work when you know that the guy is lying. The Best part is if they say the opposite of your guy you now know for certain that your guy is doing the right thing.

5. Bias: You ever hear those tales about the “liberal media”? Well one thing you will note about people in this category is the sources they trust for their “facts”. Many will complain about media bias and they will be correct some of the time, but many define bias differently than the rest of us in society do. Many people in this group judge Bias is looking at any member of their party in a poor light or looking at any member of the opposite party in a positive light. You also need to look at the backers of the product. They can’t be trusted if they are from a neutral or have affiliation with the other team. The only sources that can be trusted are backed by people that are hard core for your side after all, what reason would they have to show bias as they always tell the truth (see above points)? In truth if your only sources of information are the Blaze, Rush Limbaugh, Drudge report, fox news (or on the liberal side) Daily show, MSNBC, and Democrat Underground then you are coming from a bias point of view. 

6. They are responsible for the world’s ills: You ever notice that to these individuals that everything the other party people do is wrong? It seems that all the world’s ills can be laid at the feet of the opposing party. If the country is going through hard economic times someone from the other party is always to blame even if there is no logical argument that can be made to lead in that direction. Crime rates, unemployment, prices of gas and food, the country’s debt and many other things are blamed on the other side but it doesn't just stop there, many hard core people will blame some of the strangest things such as earthquakes, floods, fires and nasty storms staying that god is punishing the country for voting the other side in. When the other side is always at fault there is a good feeling in the works because you can place yourself above the rest see below.

7. We are what is good about the world: Just as the other side is responsible for all the world’s failings, your side is responsible for any good things that have ever happened to the country. The popular party is responsible for any good economic times, positive foreign events and even for good weather and good harvests. Your side can do no wrong and if your party is in power during bad times you can always just point out the previous point and the world will cave in for you. 


8. Generalization: The last on this list is what makes this all possible. How you can have such hard core sheep behind you and that is generalization. If you looked at each candidate or voter as an individual then you might actually have a truly varied and responsible government but we can’t have that. We generalize and impose the perceived party values on a candidate before even getting to know them. In this day and age there is a little truth to how they will vote but there are a few people today that are generally good and only partially follow the party line. This of course is also held out to the people. “You liberals all just like to remain sheep” or “You conservatives just want to take my social security”. Generalization is hurtful and an example of the stupidity that allows a person to become like the above. You get it from the talk shows and the news casters but in the end if you generalize you are just one step closer to losing yourself.


In the end I hope that when you are in a political argument you will keep these points in mind. You can even counter a person with one of the numbers staying “ah your are doing #3”. This is also an exercise in reflection. I myself am guilty of a number of these from time to time and have to think to myself “am I quoting #4?” This is a great tool for nipping this behavior in the bud and becoming your own person making a true informative position instead of a media sheep, shaped by the pundits. Don’t let them rule your life, think for yourself and vote for your own reasons to support doing the right thing.

Government should leave me alone! (Beware sarcasm)

I have heard so much of this anarchist stuff recently. They will say “I’m doing my job like a good American, I don’t ask the government for anything other than to leave me alone”. Many of these individuals will report that the founding fathers created the United States as a nation of combined private industries that has its citizens chip in for a common military. 

I will admit if you look at things in a simple view the equation Less Government = More Freedom works quite nicely but lets examine things in the perfect world of my libertarian friends. 

Security: If you can afford a weapon in a fully free united states you can have one. This is of course encouraged in a world without police. In the perfect libertarian world there are no police as there are no laws to enforce. If I wanted to I could come over to your house shoot your family and take your stuff. The blame would of course fall on the family as they were not properly trained or armed, therefore deserving of being robbed. Private security firms would be very big in this area as the wealthy and big business owners could easily afford their own private armies allowing them to do what they please. If a millionaire wished to use his private force to capture a few people to shoot and kill for fun it would be his right to do so as a free man and the family’s fault for not being successful enough to support their own private army. Gunfights in bars would be commonplace as the easiest way to solve an augment is simply to kill the guy that disagrees with you (this aspect is much more viable in the mind of an intoxicated person). If you plan on going out in the perfect libertarian world you need to make sure your are armed to the teeth and don’t show any visible weakness or the next victim could be you.

Employment: The unemployment rate in the United States would fall dramatically in the perfect libertarian world. Most of the world’s manufacturing jobs would be here as we could offer them the best tax rate and the least amount of restrictions. Many people now would scoff at working jobs for well below minimum wage with possible risk of lost limbs and life but you don’t have to go that far back in history to show that we will do so when our backs are against the wall. Many businesses can cut even more costs by taking people off the streets and making them work for free (provided the product isn’t hard to assemble). Slave labor is very viable in the perfect libertarian world. The slave has the freedom to run away or try and fight back giving them freedom to act though many at the threat of a gun will likely remain slaves. As jobs require higher skilled workers the pay rate will go up and employment will go to those with education (not necessarily citizens) though many jobs that were previously used for government work such as teachers, social workers, etc. will be in hot competition for the few jobs remaining in their fields.

The Economy: The united states will be a primary exporter in the perfect libertarian world as our middle class will shrink and our buying power diminishes. This is ok by many who believe in the perfect libertarian world as buying power means nothing in a supply side economy “Produce it and they will buy it”. We will be similar to china and may even outpace them as they actually are starting to have more regulations on manufacturing. Without regulations “buyer beware” will definitely be a useful term as we would no longer have to produce safe items food or supplies. Internally money can be used to cover up any isolated incidents and if a problem does become widespread the company will either fail or correct the issue utilizing paid off media to try and spin it in a better light. American make quality will go down but our GDP will surge quite well. Corporate wars will be a very nasty thing as there will be no such things as Copyright or patents. If a small business has a new idea, big business will simply take it for themselves and either offer meager compensation or just enjoy the fact that they didn’t have to pay anyone but their spies and soldiers to obtain it. Any new item released will be more cheaply copied and put out short after by rival companies. If you are a small business owner trying to get off the ground with a new idea in the perfect libertarian world I’d suggest you move to Canada. Big corporations will have a harder time taking on each other economically and may even result in small wars using their private armies to decimate the other one.  The military will likely be one of the best jobs for any with education that are edged out as they will be able to gain a rank as officer as those without will likely be stuck as grunts for the rest of their usefulness. Keep in mind that any soldier that gets too badly injured to be of use will most likely be left for dead so be careful when you go into the military.

Basic Public Services: Well your house catching on fire is an issue for both you and your neighbors. It is a good thing that this is an easy fix in the perfect libertarian world as you can purchase fire insurance where a fire company will collect a standard monthly payment so you can put out a fire. This may also hold an advantage if you are really close to your neighbor as they will likely put out a fire on your house to protect your insured neighbor from your fire. You had better have protection though as I’m sure the firemen will be packing arms and will take their pay out of your hide for entertaining such thoughts. People will build roads and bridges but will enforce tolls for people who use them. Many parks will be shut down with the exception of the few that are owned by wealthy individuals or those that have converted them into high profit vacation spots. Water and sewer will still incur charges much like in the past but expect lower quality service as this is a basic need and those that already hold onto the water equipment will quickly form monopolies. Trash collecting will of course also be paid for and if your neighbor isn’t paying it off they can dump the trash anywhere they please if they can get away unharmed. If your neighbor is a hoarder and the roaches are coming in from his place make sure you have enough money to take him our of the picture.

Education: Education is how many republicans have wanted it for a while with those that don’t want an education or cannot afford an education remaining ignorant and those who can afford one being the elite. We will likely have a shortage of skilled workers in the economy needing to import a few from overseas but those who can afford an education in the private schools can become more viable. I do believe that those schools that require a large check to attend will be some of the best in the world but only a handful of the population will get to see them with many children being unable to even have time for an education having to start work in the factories early in order to help feed themselves. Military jobs will be popular as they will likely provide a basic education.

Immigration: This will be a different issue. There will not be a boarder patrol and there will be no need for one as the jobs in many of the immigrant’s own countries will be better paid with more benefits. At first the current illegal’s will have a strong purpose allowing for wages to be driven down publically holding the carrot out for the unemployed American citizen. Immigration will likely happen more from the top tiers coming from countries that have more ready access to education for their people. We will still have a problem it will just be coming from a different part of the world and a different class.

Health Care: If a worker is worth it an employer may pay for the health care of the individual or pay the individual enough so that they can buy health insurance. Healthcare costs will drop yet not far enough for most Americans to access it in the perfect libertarian world. Many laborers (which will make up most of the American populous) will barely be able to afford food and shoddy housing much less healthcare. Many will be disposable to manufacturers and therefore you will have a lot of deaths. I do see this issue improving as the number of workers in the pool shrinks and most corporations will likely hire a doctor to treat minor illness to keep from incurring retraining fees for skilled laborers. Health care may even be offered to those that work the hardest giving an incentive to work well and become more valuable to the owner. Again “buyer beware” comes into play as anyone can fake an education being as there are no laws saying that any guy off the street can’t call themselves “doctor”. There will be many quacks and if the quacks are wealthy enough they can create a fake reputation for themselves and protect themselves from “botched jobs” looking for vengeance.

The Environment: Dirty water, Dirty Air, deforestation, trash everywhere. This is how most of the perfect libertarian world will look in the United states. Special gated communities will be formed for the wealthy that will be skillfully maintained. Most endangered species in the United States will become extinct species but may have a few of their numbers kept by private collectors. Cheaper coal, nuclear and oil energy will be utilized producing increased acid rain and increased diseases. Don’t worry though as most people that believe in the perfect libertarian world don’t believe in acid rain or air pollution in the first place.

In the end if the perfect libertarian world comes to pass my suggestion to you if you are not wealthy or highly skilled is to use your remaining funds to buy a bunker in the middle of the woods get lots of guns and ammo as well as survival books so you can live off the land, you will have your freedom and will never have to worry about the government “bothering” you again except when they ask you to give the minor amount used to maintain the military. Whenever you wish to lash out at your government give these things a thought first and think to yourself that you may well have more freedom to do thing you like such as owning a house, gun or being able to eat and access healthcare under government than if you had none. 

"They"

"They tell me that cats can't be trained." That's the phrase that started me thinking as I spoke with my Girlfriend tonight. She replied "I never said that" and well I had to agree with her as she did not but "they" did.

Who are "they" you might ask and you'd be well justified. "They" are everyone and nobody at the same time. "They" can have any opinion and can contradict themselves yet not be hypocritical or they are always hypocritical even if maintaining consistency.

Society loves generalizations (see I just made one) and it can be utilized many many times over. We like to use generalizations when we feel the world is against us or for us or when we're too lazy to site our sources.  In many cases there is no reason for the generalization at all.

Many people tend to Generalize things based on an isolated incident such as a politician messed up one time so therefore everything the politician has ever done and will do is a mess up. You eat at a fast food restaurant and get sick due to a bad hamburger, from that point out every restaurant in the chain serves bad hamburgers.

As a society we like rats have learned that when something turns us down we tend to protect ourselves by shunning everything like the thing that did us harm. You know when a rat eats poison and survives it will not go near that particular poison again. Rat society will aslo not go near the poison if it is observed.

I present to you all that we are trying to not be rats and we need to pay more attention to society as a whole and not put so much stock in generalization. We need to give things more of a chance and  be what we are meant to be... "Human Beings".

The Way of our World is Our Perception

I've been milling about weather to write about movies today or other things that are on my mind and I have chosen other. I have thought about things and have discovered that there are many ways to see the world and that there are three basic views of humanity.

1. This is one that I admit I keep to which is shown by Saint Thomas Aquinas. This view is that people are all born evil seeking only to meet their needs. By working hard with strict governance and rules people can learn to be good and come to enlightenment. This is really the origin of the "Social Contract" between the people and the ones who govern them. To many who believe in this, government is needed as without it the world would fall into chaos and destruction. 

2. The Second type follow Saint Augustine in his belief that we are all born good and are corrupted only by society. For those we only need to look into ourselves to find the goodness within our hearts. These people believe in Altruism as the above do not. Many people here believe that government and society are frequently the cause of the world's ills and that with the least amount of governance or none at all we would have a perfect world. 

3. The last type believes in freedom of thought society doesn't really play much of a role as the individual decides in the end how they will act in the world. To many in this way of thinking a person needs to be responsible for their choices as there is no governing force of influence that will take them beyond their choice. Altruism is indeed possible and is even more commendable for this is a personal choice but is hard to distinguish from selfishness. 

No Matter who you are it is likely that your view of the world is shaped by one of these three which will lead to my future political theory later. 

My Obsession

I have very few vices these days, gave up sodas for over a year now, don't drink don't smoke. I used to collect comics but I don't to that anymore :) . I  still have one obsession left that hasn't burned and that's movie collecting. I have well over 2000 titles and that's a nice variety. I may insert a video later on giving a closer look at my collection.

Today I will go over the psychology that has grown my collection so large it comes from a few select facts.

1. I lived in Emporia for 6 years of my life and couldn't go out after work. I was bored and video games were starting to bore me this is really where my obsession took off.

2. I am in competition with a friend of mine who is one of the few to have a collection to rival my own. Because of this rivalry I have the obsession to collect sets and items that would make him Jealous like the Dark Shadows collection so I could beat him on having a TV show with a larger episode count.

3. I have not collected for this reason in a few years now due to the size of my collection but at one time I used to collect just to add to my collection as I felt it was small. (Not so anymore)

4. I have a little OCD which compels me to get all perceived sequels to TV series or movies even if they are bad ones. Shows that have long seasons like cheers or Ranma and really cause a problem due to the size of them. (Sad but I still have Dark Shadows stuff to collect)

5. Deals...I have a hard time not taking a deal. The Above was bought easily for half what it is going for now and many of my DVDs where bought on sales when they wouldn't have been bought normally.

Either case this is a little window into my obsession I hope you enjoy it and keep in mind I don't get fully behind in my bills for mine just yet.

The great debate

As it is coming close I would like to weigh in on the upcoming presidential debate. There are currently two views as to how this debate will turn out so I shall summarize them both up.

The Left: President Obama is an excellent speaker and is 50x smarter than Governor Romney could ever be he will talk circles around Governor Romney and easily show how the difference.

The Right: President Obama is a fool who faked his college education and couldn't tie his shoes without a teleprompter. Governor Romney will beat him down during the debate.

Personally I don't believe that any of the two will show any promise tonight. The debate will be a dancing contest to see who is the best at avoiding answering the questions asked to them. Neither candidate wishes to be specific on what they want to do as many are certain they would lose voters if they take a concrete stance. I will give Governor Romney the edge as he doesn't have a presidential track record behind him and can remain more of a mystery.

My final assessment is that the debate will be a yawn fest filled with stupid quips and no substance.