My Oscar Predictions

Hello all and welcome to my Predictions for the Academy Awards for this year. I will give a quick rundown of my thoughts on each of the categories. The Academy is a highly political organization so when picking winners and losers you have to look at it as the award being 90% politics with 10% quality in order to justify the award. Still to get to this race you have to have a quality film and that 10% counts for a lot (well unless you're jackass) I will not be covering any of the shorts other than to say that I feel that Pixars Blue Umbrella should have made a nomination though I do feel the Academy was confused as to weather this was animated or live action. 

Best Picture:

Yeah the big time! We have a lot of close contenders this year. I feel this award goes to the film that is the best on all accounts listed below that can fit it plus of course having high levels of politcal clout. I really enjoyed the majority of what I have seen. I have only not managed to see Nebraska and Captain Phillips. There is soo much buzz and so much quality here that this is pretty much a shot in the dark. I feel that the race will be run though between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave. I feel that this is where the real fight is. 

12 Years a slave is a very important film in relation to better understanding the slaver movement in the united states. This has very high levels of political clout the acting is excellent the music is touching and the whole time you are on the edge of your seat (though at times cringing at the horrors). This one is a high level candidate and should have a great chance at winning. 

I think that American Hustle is the one that will take the win. I feel that Silver linings playbook was a return to oscar love for this filmmaker. The film was very well done, the makeup was spot on and the acting made you feel that you were right there watching a movie from the 70s on high grade film. The Academy I think has far more reasons to love this film and the people involved have a longer history with the Academy. 

Best Actor:

There was a lot of good acting this year. I feel this award is really the Academy's way of honoring someone that they feel their time has come. This is usually someone that has been passed over previously or at least is a seasoned actor. The person's film and award history is the most important factor in this case but at times the acting in the film does help. 

I feel that this time it is Matthew McConaughey's turn. I feel that he has worked hard to finally nail down a reputation as a real actor instead of a boy toy for women to woo over. I feel that the Academy is ready to give him the award for a career well deserved. This role is also a very memorable one and those who have seen the film will admit to the quality of this acting. 

Best Actress:

Please see the above information and just picture a woman. 

This is one that I have to say is between Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett. I have seen Blue Jasmine and believe that this is a winning role as Cate is also due more love from the Academy. I do feel that she will fall short though as the Woody Allen Scandal resurfacing will probably weigh her down.  

My pick this year is Judi Dench. Not only is she loved by the Academy for her past work and awards history she also did one heck of a job in this film. I feel that this is her time and that she will win this award. 

Best Supporting Actor:

I feel this is a way to recognize people who do not usually get the love and also to give a nod to those that are new to the field. If you are new though your acting in the film does count towards your success in this particular award. For known actors the same rules mentioned above apply. 

I feel this is a close race against two people. I will start with Bradley Cooper. I feel that the awards are loving him this year and will want to show him love for American Hustle. I believe if American Hustle does not win a lot it will likely win here. 

I think the award will go to Barkhad Abdi. I was surprised by his win at the Globes and think he will win here for the same reason. He came out of nowhere and became the talk of the town. I admit I was surprised at first but likely won't be surprised to see a win here. 

Best Supporting Actress:

See above for explaination. 

I feel that this is also a split for me. Lupita Nyong'o did a wonderful job in 12 years a slave and deserves the award. She is new to the field and I feel that her chances will be altered depending on the success of the film. 

I feel that Jennifer Lawrence will win this award. I feel that she did an ok job in American Hustle but I feel that the Academy will want to give her this award due to the recent track history and for her relation to the high level film. 

Animated Feature Film:

This is between two films again this year. I love this category as it is one of the few that I tend to see all of the contenders. Though I admit I haven't seen the Wind Rises and Ernest & Celesting. 

Frozen is a heavy contender this year. It was widely successful with their soundtrack outselling the new Beyonce album. The characters are fun and I feel that the plot line has evolved a little for Disney in quality. The animation and colors are beautiful with wonderful voice acting. I would place this in the lead under most standards especially with Pixar not being represented this year. 

I feel the win this year will go to the Wind Rises. Studio Ghibli was known for bringing Japanese anime to serious evaluation by the american people. Hayao Miyazaki has not won an award since Spirited Away which was meant to give praise to Princess Mononoke. He is retiring this year leaving a void in quality film making. I feel that due to one hand the retirement of a legend and on the other the likely quality of the film that the award will go here.  

Cinematography:

I am not schooled in this film so I tend to look at this as how smoothly this film is edited together please let me know if I am wrong here. 

I would give this award to Gravity. This film is by far one of the best films for effects and the action went seamlessly the whole way through. I have to give it here for how it was done to keep you on the edge of your seat the whole time. 

Costume Design:

This is of course one of those that is a fun category to see how accurate the film makers vision was executed for the naked eye as far as clothing is concerned. 

I think this will go to the Great Gatsby. This was a visually stunning film. I loved seeing it and if there was something that said to me how well a film was put together I would put it here. 

Best Director:

This is the award that will go to an individual that the Academy feels deserves a nod for their film history. If they win multiple awards this shows that they feel the person's career is worth continuing to highlight over the year. This is purely a political award. The film in question has very little to do with the success in this area. 

Martin Scorsese is one to watch here. The Academy loves Scorsese and it is starting to get to the time where they want to give him a little more love. I do feel though that his previous win may drag him down. 

David O. Russell is hot right now and I feel this will be the director to win. The Academy loves him and wants to show him that he is welcomed back after his long absence from the scene. I do feel after winning this year he will not win again for a time though. 

Documentary Feature:

I have only seen one film here so I will be very brief. I feel that 20 feet from Stardom will win. I have two main reasons for this to be true. It is the only documentary being kept close to the chest that is very hard to see. Usually if the Academy makes it hard to find it indicates the film is going to win (they like to keep the best things for themselves). I also have heard a great deal of love for this film. 

Film Editing:

I feel this ties into Cinematography again please point out the difference to me. 

I feel that Gravity again should get this award it is clearly the best out of the group for smoothness and seamless action. 

Foreign Language Film:

This is one of the hardest to tack down and see. Whereas last year I really hunted and saw most of them this year I have seen none of them. I do feel that there is a lot of talk about The Great Beauty and feel this is the one to watch. 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

This goes well with the costume design but this is the strange category where you will see entries where you never have before. I feel there are some fun people in this department. 

I would like to give a shout out to Bad Grandpa. I would love to see this win the award just to make people mad. The makeup is really good here and it may even be award worthy though I do not feel that it will win. It is a Jackass film after all. 

I feel Dallas Buyers Club will win here. This film needs to get a little more love and the character's deterioration is very believable in the film. This is a testament to class and to makeup.  

Music:

This is "original music" so this limits the category. I am sad here because I feel that there are many that have been overlooked for this. I feel that this award should be split into "original soundtrack" and "soundtrack" for this reason. 

I feel that this should probably go to Saving Mr. Banks. Even though I haven't seen this I will be sad for not though as I have heard wonderful things. Let me know if I am right here :). 

Original Song:

This is a category that I have managed to listen to and be fully aware of so I feel here at least I can give a really good analysis. This race is really a lock between two major contenders and I will get to them in a moment. I did want to touch on the other two which are Happy from Despicable Me 2 and The Moon Song from Her. I have seen both in their content and out of content. Happy is a fun song but it is a bit too repetitive for me and doesn’t quite have the political artistic or poplar vote. The Moon Song is really good but I also believe this does not have a shot as it doesn’t hold the popularity or the political card.

Now we come to the two that are head to head in competition. I will start with the one I would like to win which is “Let it Go” from Disney’s movie Frozen. I have watched this in context and it is very moving. Good Morning America recently did a sing along where a good number of the citizenry in New York City dropped what they were doing to get together and sing along for a few minutes. This is a fun song to sing along with and it moves you emotionally. The song is incredibly popular topping Beyonce’s new album on the charts which is a task in onto itself. Disney has a lot of political clout so this also counts in its favor and this does have a good chance but I do not feel it will come out on top.

Ordinary Love by U2 for the movie Mandela is the one that I believe will take home the win this year. It is a very well crafted song in its own right and has some popular following. It doesn’t have the fun or quite the numbers behind it that Let it Go has but it does have one thing behind it that is the prime motivator in any award given by the academy (politics). First off U2 did this song and the academy loves U2 this alone would be enough to make it a major contender for the award. The second which I believe is the main reason this will win is the death of Nelson Mandela. The Movie is one that did not get heavy nominations this year with it being only nominated in this category. Add to this the fact that the Lead singer of U2 was a friend of Mandela and you cannot deny that this is almost a compulsory need for the academy to put this forward as their honorable mention to the man.

So to sum up for this award I give it to “Ordinary Love” with “Let it go” coming in a close second.

Production Design:

This is another technical category and I all admit I don't know much about it. This is of course the sets and everything in between . I have two that are close here. By the way though I dig the 70s styles of the future in her I can't bring it up. :) 

Gravity is a major contender for this award. The film is beautiful and it is a rare look at how space stations and space ships really look this is really cool and this will likely be the winner if my top pick does not. 

The Great Gatsby isn't a lot of things but it is an incredibly beautiful film to look at. The way that the director utilized extras and set design you are constantly glued to the film even with its terrible soundtrack and iffy plot. 

Sound Editing:

Ok what is the difference between Sound editing and sound mixing? I will be making my best guess as I have every year. Please those of you who know better educate me in the science :) 

I would give this to The Hobbit for its wonderfully put together soundtrack. I am guessing by sound editing that this is utilizing the background music and battle noise to better reflect the film. This film is a disappointment as was the other one but in the end it is still not a badly put together film. 

Gravity I feel deserves to clean up in all technical aspects the film is now much better put together. The sound is together so that it will keep you on the edge of your seat. 

Sound Mixing:

I keep thinking about the sounds in transformers when thinking of this award and clinking machinery sounding right. 

I feel Gravity is the only one that deserves this award. The technical aspects of the sound are top notch and deserve what it gets. 

Visual Effects:

This has quickly come to mean Computer generated effects as our films have become more and more technical. This is showing that the film looks very pretty. I do not feel that the Hobbit belongs here as the quality has fallen terribly from the old days of Lord of the rings but here too we are seeing new people. 

I feel Gravity is the only winner here. The views of space and the movement and interactions with run away debries is something to behold making the film the one to beat this year. 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Taking a work and putting it on the screen is a very difficult task. I feel that this is something that we need to appreciate more when it is done right as it is so frequently done wrong (see the Harry Potter Films)

I feel Philomena is the clear contender here. This film was beautifully executed and has not only made the book more viable it has also lead to us all sitting teary eyed in the end. 

I feel 12 Years a Slave is very much the big winner here as it is one that needs to be held up to shine a new light on the source material and the plight of slavery in the united states. This portion of our history should never be forgotten. Let us not forget that this film was wonderfully executed.  

Best Original Screenplay:

In a world where everything is being remade and re-drafted I feel that originality should be honored above all. Let us take a nice look into the world of original screenplays. 

Blue Jasmine is the major contender. I feel that Woody Allen taking a political hit will hurt this one's chances though he is a very heavy hitter in this category. The Academy likes Woody Allen even if he couldn't care less about them. 

I feel that Her will win. This is incredibly original and I feel this film will get little other love this year. This was wonderfully executed and if any of you haven't seen this film you need to go see it now. I mean it leave your computer and go see it now!

Well that's it I hope to see you all Sunday in order to tell me how wrong I really am :P