Friday, October 26, 2012

My Predictions for the future

Well we are on the cusp of a major change that will rock our world in the next 2 years…or maybe not.

I am going to make a few political predictions when it comes to what will happen during the next 4 years and it really won’t show a major change no matter who is elected and knowing this is the key in making an informed decision. I am going to look at several aspects of the nation that will determine political outcomes over the next four year yet some may be unfair choices.

The Economy: If Mitt Romney and the republicans get in power the economy will just turn right around right? The answer to this is no. Even with radical changes the economy moves slowly and any growth seen over the next 4 years will likely be due to the policies of the last president. These changes will likely not even start to show any grasp until the end of the Governor Romney’s first term of office and it is very possible that it will not even show at that time if the changes are more subtle.

The People are not very patient with the economy so those of you who want the Republicans to stay in office you had better change your tune of hoping that President Obama fails as it will be his influences that will show the state of the economy at the end of two years when major changes could take place. If the economy tanks as many republicans believe that the president’s work will cause it will be blamed on the current party in power much as it was for the democrat party in 2010. So if the recovery does not pull into full swing in two years expect a major shift in power in congress yet again and in 4 years you will see a change of presidents.

Note: If republican predictions are true and the president’s economic plans are going to cause the country to fall into an even further economic collapse then no matter who gets elected you better get ready for it because there will be nothing short of a dictatorship that could turn the economy from its current path for a major change in the next 2 years.

Medical: Governor Romney may work to repeal Obamacare but this will not cause any huge changes as it will take time. Repealing the law is difficult especially if the Democrats hold on to the Senate. After repeal things will return to where they were before and considering the drama it took to pass healthcare reform when democrats held the congress and presidency it is unlikely that republican reform will go through quickly as there is no united view on this. During this time more people will be forced into the emergency rooms and more government debt will mount. Healthcare costs will continue to rise as they did before and after Obamacare and more help from the government will be looked to for medications as the Part D Medicare plan will fail due to lack of funding (as was intended originally by the Bush Administration). For anyone thinking that healthcare costs will go down or those doctors will start opening up more businesses then they are going to be mistaken. The only hope is that they get the job done quickly as the number of wellness visits may go down and the number of ER visits will go up if people are given time to get used to the no co-pay wellness visits.

In the end I predict that by the end of two years healthcare costs will continue to rise and the number of uninsured will continue to grow. This will be used by the opposing party as the ruling party tries to sweep it under the rug. This will only effect the election if the increase in ER visits causes enough of a rise in medical expenses to effect the nation’s debt.

Social: It is doubtful that there will be any major changes on this front. No matter who is in power abortions will not go away and gay marriage will continue to be an issue. I do not believe that totally outlawing either would be in the best interest of the party in power. The only changes seen will likely be minor making it either harder or easier for these to be done.

In regards to religious freedom of private businesses. I do not believe that contraception will be illegal but I do believe that private businesses will be given the right to not treat certain medical problems if they decide that their religion would not allow for it.

Military: We will be without any attacks if Governor Romney takes office right? The answer is likely that we will be in the same place as we are now. Though increased military funding has been proposed it is much like the Stimulus money being without a particular plan or use. Much of the increase will go to weapons manufacturers for equipment that will most probably not even been seeing field work. No matter who takes office we will still have the same enemies and same friends in the world, we will still have terrorists and we will still have a presence in military bases around the world. I suggest that there is to be no change no matter who is in power.

How can that be? Both parties believe in funding the military despite what either group will tell you. The difference is in where the funding cuts are made and where the increases are given. Under democrats the fund cuts are usually to weapons manufacturing and any increase is typically to veteran’s services or soldier pay. The idea is that a well groomed soldier will be ready when the time comes. The Republican Party tends to do the opposite reporting that a well armed soldier gets the job done.

In Summary: In the end we will not see any major changes in the issues over the next 4 years. Our decisions for who stays in power for the next election will for the most part be determined by the political moves of our current president and the resilience of his policies. I say think hard and look at things hard when you vote. If things are going well in 2 years don’t give credit to the individual that didn’t really have an effect on it just as you shouldn’t blame the man if  the economy is still in the tank in two years.

Republicans, if you want to stay in power (provided your guy gets elected) pray for the president’s economic policies to be successful even if they are mildly so. You can claim his successes are your own and win the election.

Democrats, take the republican stance and hope that the president failed (provided your guy loses the election). You can then blame the party in power for something they don’t have any power over and turn the tables.  

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